Post History
#3: Post edited
by
Grove
·
2021-01-08T11:01:02Z (almost 4 years ago)
- As you seem to know (the $10\times 10\\% \neq 100\\%$-stuff - but continue doing anyway) and celtschk's answer shows you can't add the probabilities like that. (The events aren't independent)
The expected number of upgrades are the same, but what you really need to weigh against each other is the chance of not getting an upgrade at all ($70\\%$ if you chose the $30\\%$ strategy, $72{,}9\\%$ if you use the $10\\%$ strategy three times, and the possibility of getting more upgrades ($0$ if you use the $30\\% strategy, $2{,}8\\%$ if you use the $10\\%$ strategy three times - and I did my math correctly). All of that is assuming you don't have any other use (like saving it) for the gold and chose to apply the $10\\%$ strategy three times.
- As you seem to know (the $10\times 10\\% \neq 100\\%$-stuff - but continue doing anyway) and celtschk's answer shows you can't add the probabilities like that. (The events aren't independent)
- The expected number of upgrades are the same, but what you really need to weigh against each other is the chance of not getting an upgrade at all ($70\\%$ if you chose the $30\\%$ strategy, $72{,}9\\%$ if you use the $10\\%$ strategy three times, and the possibility of getting more upgrades ($0$ if you use the $30\\%$ strategy, $2{,}8\\%$ if you use the $10\\%$ strategy three times - and I did my math correctly). All of that is assuming you don't have any other use (like saving it) for the gold and chose to apply the $10\\%$ strategy three times.
#2: Post edited
by
Grove
·
2021-01-08T11:00:27Z (almost 4 years ago)
- As you seem to know (the $10\times 10\\% \neq 100\\%$-stuff - but continue doing anyway) and celtschk's answer shows you can't add the probabilities like that. (The events aren't independent)
The expected number of upgrades are the same, but what you really need to weigh against each other is the chance of not getting an upgrade at all ($70\\%$ if you chose the $30\\%$ strategy, $72{,}9\\%$ if you use the $10\\%$ strategy three times, and the possibility of getting more upgrades ($0$ if you use the $30% strategy, $2{,}8\\%$ if you use the $10\\%$ strategy three times - and I did my math correctly). All of that is assuming you don't have any other use (like saving it) for the gold and chose to apply the $10\\%$ strategy three times.
- As you seem to know (the $10\times 10\\% \neq 100\\%$-stuff - but continue doing anyway) and celtschk's answer shows you can't add the probabilities like that. (The events aren't independent)
- The expected number of upgrades are the same, but what you really need to weigh against each other is the chance of not getting an upgrade at all ($70\\%$ if you chose the $30\\%$ strategy, $72{,}9\\%$ if you use the $10\\%$ strategy three times, and the possibility of getting more upgrades ($0$ if you use the $30\\% strategy, $2{,}8\\%$ if you use the $10\\%$ strategy three times - and I did my math correctly). All of that is assuming you don't have any other use (like saving it) for the gold and chose to apply the $10\\%$ strategy three times.
#1: Initial revision
by
Grove
·
2021-01-08T10:54:56Z (almost 4 years ago)
As you seem to know (the $10\times 10\\% \neq 100\\%$-stuff - but continue doing anyway) and celtschk's answer shows you can't add the probabilities like that. (The events aren't independent)
The expected number of upgrades are the same, but what you really need to weigh against each other is the chance of not getting an upgrade at all ($70\\%$ if you chose the $30\\%$ strategy, $72{,}9\\%$ if you use the $10\\%$ strategy three times, and the possibility of getting more upgrades ($0$ if you use the $30% strategy, $2{,}8\\%$ if you use the $10\\%$ strategy three times - and I did my math correctly). All of that is assuming you don't have any other use (like saving it) for the gold and chose to apply the $10\\%$ strategy three times.