Comments on 25% probability that there was a chance of avoiding injury $\quad$ vs. $\quad$ 25% chance of avoiding injury
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25% probability that there was a chance of avoiding injury $\quad$ vs. $\quad$ 25% chance of avoiding injury
I ask about merely the math behind the last sentence of footnote 71 quoted below. I quote the legalistic sentences thereinbefore for context, but they may be immaterial.
How does "a 25% probability that there was a chance of avoiding injury" differ from "25% chance of avoiding injury"? Alas, my mind is conflating these 2 chances.
71 Though some academics do insist that damages for loss of a chance could have been awarded in Hotson [v East Berkshire Health Authority [1987] AC 750 268]: see Peel 2003b, 627, and references contained therein. An amazing number of academics argue that the fact that the House of Lords awarded the claimant in Hotson nothing means that Hotson is authority for the proposition that damages for loss of a chance of avoiding physical injury cannot be claimed in negligence: see Porat & Stein 2003, 679; Weir 2004, 214–15. As the majority of the Court of Appeal recognised in Gregg v Scott [2002] EWCA Civ 1471 (at [39], per Latham LJ and at [78], per Mance LJ) this is incorrect – the facts of the case in Hotson were such that the claimant simply could not bring a claim for loss of a chance against the defendants. See, to the same effect, Reece 1996; also Hill 1991. Fleming 1997 puts the point quite well (at 69): ‘[A] 25% probability that there was a chance [of avoiding injury cannot] be conflated into a 25% chance [of avoiding injury].’
N.J. McBride and R. Bagshaw, Tort Law, 6th edn (2018), page 280, footnote 71.
In the last sentence, "Fleming 1997" refers to John G. Fleming, “Preventive Damages” in N J Mullany (ed), Torts in the Nineties (LBC Information Services, Sydney, 1997), pp 56-71.
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