Post History
#2: Post edited
by
Ethen
·
2023-07-25T19:58:09Z (10 months ago)
I feel that picking unpopular integers (like $\ge 32$ as recommended below) lowers your probability of winning lotteries, for 2 reasons. Let $N \ge 32$ be the largest integer pickable by players.- 1. Winning integers range randomly from [1 to N](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lottery_mathematics#Choosing_6_from_49). But you're transmogrifying this game, by artificially narrowing yourself to $[32, N]$!
- 2. By disregarding the 31 possible winning integers $\in [1, 31]$, you are flouting the lottery’s random distribution of winning integers! Because $[1, N]$ contains more integers than $[32, N]$, picking numbers $\in [1, N]$ proffers more chances to win than picking $\in [32, N]$.
- #### What’s wrong with my intuition? Please correct my intuition. I'm NOT seeking any proof or formality. Please explain at a 16 year old (my son's age) level.
- >[Here’s something you can do that might have an impact on your game: studies show that most people play numbers based on special days of the month, such as birthdays and anniversaries. So, numbers greater than the number of days in the month, or over 31, are less frequently played.
- If you do win with a less popular number, there may be less people to split a prize. So while picking these numbers won’t increase the odds of a win, it might increase the amount of a win.](https://www.playsmart.ca/lottery-instant-games/lottery/strategies)
- >[Anyhow, if you do play the lottery, you should *not* play obvious combinations, or anything that can be described in one sentence, such as "the birthdays of my pets, increased by 5" (yes, there is going to be someone who has pets born on the same days as you, and who also thinks 5 is his lucky number). ](https://math.stackexchange.com/a/467600)
- >[The only thing you can do to improve your situation is to pick an unpopular set of numbers to reduce the number of ways you split the prize should you win.](https://math.stackexchange.com/a/2822828)
- >[You should also not pick the date - or any date for that matter.](https://math.stackexchange.com/a/2924261)
- >[ The arguments of picking unpopular numbers only matter if there is a jackpot that is divided among the winners. In that case you want unpopular numbers so you share less.](https://math.stackexchange.com/a/2077539)
- Let $N \ge 32$ be the largest integer pickable by players. I feel that picking unpopular integers (like _N_) lowers your probability of winning lotteries, for 2 reasons.
- 1. Winning integers range randomly from [1 to N](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lottery_mathematics#Choosing_6_from_49). But you're transmogrifying this game, by artificially narrowing yourself to $[32, N]$!
- 2. By disregarding the 31 possible winning integers $\in [1, 31]$, you are flouting the lottery’s random distribution of winning integers! Because $[1, N]$ contains more integers than $[32, N]$, picking numbers $\in [1, N]$ proffers more chances to win than picking $\in [32, N]$.
- #### What’s wrong with my intuition? Please correct my intuition. I'm NOT seeking any proof or formality. Please explain at a 16 year old (my son's age) level.
- >[Here’s something you can do that might have an impact on your game: studies show that most people play numbers based on special days of the month, such as birthdays and anniversaries. So, numbers greater than the number of days in the month, or over 31, are less frequently played.
- If you do win with a less popular number, there may be less people to split a prize. So while picking these numbers won’t increase the odds of a win, it might increase the amount of a win.](https://www.playsmart.ca/lottery-instant-games/lottery/strategies)
- >[Anyhow, if you do play the lottery, you should *not* play obvious combinations, or anything that can be described in one sentence, such as "the birthdays of my pets, increased by 5" (yes, there is going to be someone who has pets born on the same days as you, and who also thinks 5 is his lucky number). ](https://math.stackexchange.com/a/467600)
- >[The only thing you can do to improve your situation is to pick an unpopular set of numbers to reduce the number of ways you split the prize should you win.](https://math.stackexchange.com/a/2822828)
- >[You should also not pick the date - or any date for that matter.](https://math.stackexchange.com/a/2924261)
- >[ The arguments of picking unpopular numbers only matter if there is a jackpot that is divided among the winners. In that case you want unpopular numbers so you share less.](https://math.stackexchange.com/a/2077539)
#1: Initial revision
by
Ethen
·
2023-07-25T18:33:02Z (10 months ago)
Intuitively, why doesn't picking unpopular integers ($> 31$) lower your probability of winning lotteries?
I feel that picking unpopular integers (like $\ge 32$ as recommended below) lowers your probability of winning lotteries, for 2 reasons. Let $N \ge 32$ be the largest integer pickable by players. 1. Winning integers range randomly from [1 to N](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lottery_mathematics#Choosing_6_from_49). But you're transmogrifying this game, by artificially narrowing yourself to $[32, N]$! 2. By disregarding the 31 possible winning integers $\in [1, 31]$, you are flouting the lottery’s random distribution of winning integers! Because $[1, N]$ contains more integers than $[32, N]$, picking numbers $\in [1, N]$ proffers more chances to win than picking $\in [32, N]$. #### What’s wrong with my intuition? Please correct my intuition. I'm NOT seeking any proof or formality. Please explain at a 16 year old (my son's age) level. >[Here’s something you can do that might have an impact on your game: studies show that most people play numbers based on special days of the month, such as birthdays and anniversaries. So, numbers greater than the number of days in the month, or over 31, are less frequently played. If you do win with a less popular number, there may be less people to split a prize. So while picking these numbers won’t increase the odds of a win, it might increase the amount of a win.](https://www.playsmart.ca/lottery-instant-games/lottery/strategies) >[Anyhow, if you do play the lottery, you should *not* play obvious combinations, or anything that can be described in one sentence, such as "the birthdays of my pets, increased by 5" (yes, there is going to be someone who has pets born on the same days as you, and who also thinks 5 is his lucky number). ](https://math.stackexchange.com/a/467600) >[The only thing you can do to improve your situation is to pick an unpopular set of numbers to reduce the number of ways you split the prize should you win.](https://math.stackexchange.com/a/2822828) >[You should also not pick the date - or any date for that matter.](https://math.stackexchange.com/a/2924261) >[ The arguments of picking unpopular numbers only matter if there is a jackpot that is divided among the winners. In that case you want unpopular numbers so you share less.](https://math.stackexchange.com/a/2077539)