Post History
#2: Post edited
by
Chgg Clou
·
2023-07-16T21:17:06Z (10 months ago)
Why'd the Expected Value differ, for different wagers of the same lottery?
- Why do the Expected Values differ, for different wagers of the same lottery?
- For all the different wagers of [Daily Keno's $10 PICK](https://www.olg.ca/en/lottery/play-daily-keno-encore/past-results.html#odds-and-payouts), the odds of winning jackpot are alike : [1 in 2,147,181](https://www.olg.ca/en/lottery/play-daily-keno-encore/past-results.html#odds-and-payouts). Then I calculated their EV.
- | Wager | Jackpot | EV $= [(Jackpot - Wager) \times Probability] - Wager$ |
- |:-:|:-:|:-:|
- | $10 | $2.5m | $\frac{2.5E6 - 10}{2147181} - 10 = -8.84$ |
- | 5 | $1.25m | $-4.42$ |
- | 2 | $500k | $-1.77$ |
- | 1 | $250k | $-0.88$ |
I know that lottery players can be irrational. But why'd EV differ by wager? These mighty differences in EV feel illogical, because any rational player shall solely play the wager with the highest EV (the $1 wager in this case).- Or have I overlooked reasons to play the other wagers with lower EV?
- For all the different wagers of [Daily Keno's $10 PICK](https://www.olg.ca/en/lottery/play-daily-keno-encore/past-results.html#odds-and-payouts), the odds of winning jackpot are alike : [1 in 2,147,181](https://www.olg.ca/en/lottery/play-daily-keno-encore/past-results.html#odds-and-payouts). Then I calculated their EV.
- | Wager | Jackpot | EV $= [(Jackpot - Wager) \times Probability] - Wager$ |
- |:-:|:-:|:-:|
- | $10 | $2.5m | $\frac{2.5E6 - 10}{2147181} - 10 = -8.84$ |
- | 5 | $1.25m | $-4.42$ |
- | 2 | $500k | $-1.77$ |
- | 1 | $250k | $-0.88$ |
- I know that lottery players can be irrational. But why do EV's differ by wager? These mighty differences in EV feel illogical, because any rational player shall solely play the wager with the highest EV (the $1 wager in this case).
- Or have I overlooked reasons to play the other wagers with lower EV?
#1: Initial revision
by
Chgg Clou
·
2023-07-16T21:16:46Z (10 months ago)
Why'd the Expected Value differ, for different wagers of the same lottery?
For all the different wagers of [Daily Keno's $10 PICK](https://www.olg.ca/en/lottery/play-daily-keno-encore/past-results.html#odds-and-payouts), the odds of winning jackpot are alike : [1 in 2,147,181](https://www.olg.ca/en/lottery/play-daily-keno-encore/past-results.html#odds-and-payouts). Then I calculated their EV.
| Wager | Jackpot | EV $= [(Jackpot - Wager) \times Probability] - Wager$ |
|:-:|:-:|:-:|
| $10 | $2.5m | $\frac{2.5E6 - 10}{2147181} - 10 = -8.84$ |
| 5 | $1.25m | $-4.42$ |
| 2 | $500k | $-1.77$ |
| 1 | $250k | $-0.88$ |
I know that lottery players can be irrational. But why'd EV differ by wager? These mighty differences in EV feel illogical, because any rational player shall solely play the wager with the highest EV (the $1 wager in this case).
Or have I overlooked reasons to play the other wagers with lower EV?