This is the way of explaining it that works the best for me.
Forget about the probabilities for a moment - after the host opens 98/100 doors, there are 2 doors left. Therefore, you either have selected a door with a goat or a door with a car. Now, if you have selected a goat, then switching will get you the car. If you've selected a car, then switching will unfortunately get you the goat.
Now think back to the beginning. There were 100 doors and only 1 car. Therefore at the beginning you had a 99/100 chance to pick a goat. And we know that if you picked a goat, switching gets you the car, so you have a 99/100 chance to receive the car if you switch.
The probabilities are congregating on the last door because of how the strategy of switching works.
Quintec
·
2021-08-10T01:48:32Z (over 3 years ago)