Post History
#3: Post edited
by
Moshi
·
2021-02-10T09:42:21Z (almost 4 years ago)
quickfix of // -> ////, see https://math.codidact.com/posts/278763
What story and one-digit Natural Numbers explain Bayes' Theorem chart most simply?
- Some students have sniveled that most examples of Bayes' Theorem use non-integer numbers. I want to try a Bayes' Theorem chart that uses just single digit Natural Numbers $\le 9$. To complete the table below most comfortably for teenagers,
- 1. what are the simplest stories?
- 2. what natural numbers ≤ 9 contrast the base rate fallacy the most? Please don't repeat a number.
- [The biggest number in this similar question](https://matheducators.stackexchange.com/q/16977/15364) still uses two digits, and rehashes the common example of letting D be be a disease and $H_0$ be a negative (diagnostic) test result. What other $H_0, D$ are more intuitive? Green denotes true positive and negative, red false positive and negative.
- $\begin{array}{r|cc|c}
\text{Number of occurrences}&D &\lnot D &\text{Total}\\ \hlineH_a &\color{green}{\Pr(D)\Pr(+|D)}&\color{red}{\Pr(D^C)\Pr(+|D^C)}&\text{add the 2 left entries}\\H_0 &\color{red}{\Pr(D)\Pr(-|D)}&\color{green}{\Pr(D^C)\Pr(-|D^C)}&\text{add the 2 left entries}\\ \hline- \text{Total}&\text{add the 2 above entries}&\text{add the 2 above entries}&\text{single digit integer}
- \end{array}$
- Some students have sniveled that most examples of Bayes' Theorem use non-integer numbers. I want to try a Bayes' Theorem chart that uses just single digit Natural Numbers $\le 9$. To complete the table below most comfortably for teenagers,
- 1. what are the simplest stories?
- 2. what natural numbers ≤ 9 contrast the base rate fallacy the most? Please don't repeat a number.
- [The biggest number in this similar question](https://matheducators.stackexchange.com/q/16977/15364) still uses two digits, and rehashes the common example of letting D be be a disease and $H_0$ be a negative (diagnostic) test result. What other $H_0, D$ are more intuitive? Green denotes true positive and negative, red false positive and negative.
- $\begin{array}{r|cc|c}
- \text{Number of occurrences}&D &\lnot D &\text{Total}\\\\ \hline
- H_a &\color{green}{\Pr(D)\Pr(+|D)}&\color{red}{\Pr(D^C)\Pr(+|D^C)}&\text{add the 2 left entries}\\\\
- H_0 &\color{red}{\Pr(D)\Pr(-|D)}&\color{green}{\Pr(D^C)\Pr(-|D^C)}&\text{add the 2 left entries}\\\\ \hline
- \text{Total}&\text{add the 2 above entries}&\text{add the 2 above entries}&\text{single digit integer}
- \end{array}$
#2: Post edited
by
DNB
·
2021-02-09T23:42:45Z (almost 4 years ago)
What story and one-digit Natural Numbers best fit Bayes' Theorem chart?
- What story and one-digit Natural Numbers explain Bayes' Theorem chart most simply?
#1: Initial revision
by
DNB
·
2021-02-09T23:29:08Z (almost 4 years ago)
What story and one-digit Natural Numbers best fit Bayes' Theorem chart?
Some students have sniveled that most examples of Bayes' Theorem use non-integer numbers. I want to try a Bayes' Theorem chart that uses just single digit Natural Numbers $\le 9$. To complete the table below most comfortably for teenagers,
1. what are the simplest stories?
2. what natural numbers ≤ 9 contrast the base rate fallacy the most? Please don't repeat a number.
[The biggest number in this similar question](https://matheducators.stackexchange.com/q/16977/15364) still uses two digits, and rehashes the common example of letting D be be a disease and $H_0$ be a negative (diagnostic) test result. What other $H_0, D$ are more intuitive? Green denotes true positive and negative, red false positive and negative.
$\begin{array}{r|cc|c}
\text{Number of occurrences}&D &\lnot D &\text{Total}\\ \hline
H_a &\color{green}{\Pr(D)\Pr(+|D)}&\color{red}{\Pr(D^C)\Pr(+|D^C)}&\text{add the 2 left entries}\\
H_0 &\color{red}{\Pr(D)\Pr(-|D)}&\color{green}{\Pr(D^C)\Pr(-|D^C)}&\text{add the 2 left entries}\\ \hline
\text{Total}&\text{add the 2 above entries}&\text{add the 2 above entries}&\text{single digit integer}
\end{array}$