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How to decide whether to buy a lottery with a too negative EV, but passable you win jackpot at least once│n plays)?
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How to decide whether to buy a lottery with a too negative EV, but passable you win jackpot at least once│n plays)? [closed]
Closed as off topic by Peter Taylor on Jul 19, 2023 at 07:17
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Daily Keno's too negative Expected Value looks scammy.
As many play the same lottery repeatedly, I shall consider
But some rational players can sensibly tolerate Keno's fairish you win jackpot at least once │n plays).
Before COVID, I spent
n | n/2 = days | |
---|---|---|
21 | 10.5 | = 0.00010 ≈ 1/97,599 |
215 | 107.5 (= 3 months, 17 days) | = 0.00010 ≈ 1/10k |
366 | 183 (= half a year) | = 0.00017 ≈ 1/5883 |
730 | 365 (= 1 year) | = 0.00034 ≈ 1/2941 |
1460 | 730 (= 2 years) | = 0.00068 ≈ 1/1471 |
2150 | 1075 (= 2 years, 11 months) | = 0.0010 ≈ 1/1000 |
Some Homo Economicus can logically accept these humdrum probabilities, like
Playing the lottery can be worth it, even with negative expected value.
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